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Sunday, December 30, 2012

Stamp Investment Tip: Uzbekistan 2004 Summer Olympics Souvenir Sheet (Scott #387)


In 2004, Uzbekistan issued a souvenir sheet celebrating the Summer Olympics (Scott #387). Only 20,000 were issued, and Scott '13 prices it unused at $3.00.


The sheet makes an interesting and low-risk speculation based on its appeal as a Sports/Olympics topical, and as a bet on the economic growth of Uzbekistan and the development of a stamp market there. This recommendation is consistent with my belief that one of the best ways to play the new and newly resurrected countries of Europe and Asia is to focus on popular topicals with low printings.

A nation of about 28 million, Uzbekistan relies mainly on the production or extraction of commodities, including cotton, gold, uranium, potassium, and natural gas. The government is slowly relaxing state control of the economy, although it remains hostile to allowing the development of a significant private sector. Average annual GDP growth has been outstanding, averaging 8% over the last 5 years. However, average income has remained low, at around $610 per year (2006), largely due to the fact that much of the country's prosperity has benefited a tiny ruling elite of corrupt bureaucrats. Reforms are obviously necessary, although given the country's abysmal human rights record, the road to change will probably be a bumpy one.

Those interested in becoming part of an international community of stamp collectors, dealers, and investors are welcome to join the "Stampselectors" group at Facebook. The group hosts lively discussions concerning stamp investment and practical aspects of collecting, as is also an excellent venue for those who wish to buy, sell, or trade stamps. 


Thursday, December 27, 2012

Stamp Investment Tip: Peru 1927 Servicio Aereo Overprint (Scott #C1)

  In 1927, Peru overprinted 10,000 of its 50c Statue of Maria Bellido stamps (Scott #248) "Servicio Aereo", thereby creating its first airmail stamp (Scott #C1).  Scott '13 prices the unused stamp at $50.00.

  The genuine stamp is worth owning. Unfortunately, examples with fake overprints exist, and C1 is still too inexpensive to justify paying for expertization on an individual stamp. Therefore, the prudent means of investing in it is to purchase multiples (blocks of 4 or more stamps), conditional on obtaining expertization. 

Peru has issued a number of undervalued sets, which I intend to cover in the future. Demand for the country's stamps is boosted by the tendency of many collectors to focus on Latin America as a region.

With a population of 29 million, Peru is an emerging market nation which has experienced significant economic growth over the last 15 years, and annual GDP growth averaging 7.2% over the last 5. Major exports include copper, gold, zinc, textiles, and fish meal. In 2010 Peru's per capita income is about $10,000. Poverty has steadily decreased since 2004, when nearly half the country's population was under the poverty line, although great inequities in income distribution persist. As the trend continues and more Peruvians join the middle class, the country's better stamps should do very well.

Information concerning printing quantities of stamps is often useful in determining which may turn out to be good investments. The StampSelector Scarce Stamp Quantities Issued List (SSSSQIL) currently includes over 9,700 listings of stamps and souvenir sheets with issuance quantities of 100,000 or less.


Sunday, December 23, 2012

Stamp Investment Tip: New Zealand 1946-47 Life Insurance Stamps (Scott #OY24-28)

  New Zealand began issuing stamps for use by its  Government Life Insurance Department in 1891.  From 1946 to '47, New Zealand issued a set of five Life Insurance Stamps (Scott #OY24-28), utilizing the same Lighthouse common design that had been used in its earlier 1905-32 set (Scott #OY10-23). 13,800 of the were issued, and Scott '13 prices the unused set at $ 24.55 ($42.50 for NH)  .           

All of the early New Zealand Life Insurance sets are scarce and undervalued - possibly because they are neglected as obscure back-of-book issues.

New Zealand is a modern, prosperous nation of about 4.3 million people, with a GDP of $115 billion. Over the last 10 years, annual GDP growth has averaged about 3%. The economy was hurt by the recent global financial crisis, and is beginning to recover. In 2005, the World Bank praised New Zealand as being the most business-friendly nation in the world. The nation has a stamp collecting demographic similar to Great Britain's, and the demand for better material should increase dramatically as population aging accelerates. The percentage of New Zealanders aged 60 and over will rise from 18% in 2009 to 29% in 2050.

I've begun a new blog, "The Stamp Specialist", which features wholesale buy prices for stamps which I am interested in purchasing, as well as links to other dealers' buy lists. Viewing dealers' buy lists every now and then is an excellent way to keep current on the vagaries of the stamp market.









Thursday, December 20, 2012

General Commentary - Does 3D Printing Mean Armageddon for Collectibles?

  In a recent article in The American Philatelist ("The Future of Forgery" - October, 2011 edition), Stephen Rose describes the probable future advances in 3D scanning and printing technology, and the possible implications for collectibles markets. With this new technology, a computer-aided design may be executed to produce a three dimensional object by "printing" a thin layer at a time. 3D printers have already been used to produce dental crowns, jewelry, and musical instruments.

3D Systems Z Printer 850
   The article describes a threat to collectibles markets in general (and to the stamp market in particular) brought about by a convergence in advances in computing power, scanning capacity, and 3D printing. If these technologies converge so as to allow a forger to produce a virtually identical copy of a collectible which is accurate at the molecular level, then it is possible that all collectibles may be rendered almost worthless. Should  the technology advance to the point where any collectible - be it a rare coin, stamp, Ming vase, painting, classic car, etc.- may be reproduced with near perfect accuracy such that authentication is impossible, then all collectibles markets will be decimated in short order. Museums housing what were once billion dollar collections will be converted to shopping malls, and the "Collectibles Bubble" will be compared to the Tulip Craze of the 17th century Netherlands.

   Of course, as with all radical projections concerning the future, the prediction that 3D printing will mean the end of the collectibles business currently seems about as credible as science fiction. While it is likely that the technologies which might be applied by a forger will develop over time and that costs of reproducing objects will decrease, the key questions are whether it will ever be possible to produce virtually identical copies of originals, and whether the science of authentication also advances to counter the threat. It will be interesting to see how the relevant technologies progress over the next decade or two.

Those interested in learning more about investing in stamps are encouraged to read the Philatelic Investment Guide ($5), available on Kindle, and accessible from any computer.









Sunday, December 16, 2012

Stamp Investment Tip: Newfoundland 1919 Trans-Atlantic Air Post Surcharge (Scott #C2)


Newfoundland issued several overprinted airmail stamps that served as postage on pioneer flights, which are of great interest to Aviation topicalists and include some of the great rarities of Aviation Philately. The rarities are unaffordable for the vast majority of collectors, but the lesser flight overprints are also quite scarce and worthy of consideration as investments.

In 1919, Newfoundland surcharged 6,786 15c Seal stamps (Scott #70) from its 1897 Pictorial series, increasing the stamp's value to $1. The stamp (Scott #C2) was used on covers which were carried on the first successful non-stop trans-Atlantic flight. Scott ' 13 prices the unused stamp at $225.00  ($375.-  for NH).

    As with many overprinted stamps, varieties were produced, including one without comma after "Post" (pictured; Scott C2a- CV = $240.- , 2,796 issued), and a much scarcer stamp without the period after "Dollar" (Scott C2b- CV= $ 450.- , 398 issued). I recommend purchase of any of these stamps in VF NH or LH condition, or on a Flight cover. C2b probably offers the most bang for the buck as an investment, given its current scarcity and market value. As with all valuable overprinted stamps, expertization is strongly recommended.

Many of the better stamps of Newfoundland were issued in modest quantities. I intend to revisit them in the future, as I am "doggedly bullish" (to badly mix metaphors) about better British North America in general. This area is very popular among collectors of both Canada and British Commonwealth, and the better items represent solid investments, as interest in stamp collecting in Canada is much stronger than it is in the U.S. .

With a population of about 31 million, Canada is one of the world's wealthiest countries, and is one of the world's top ten trading nations. GDP growth has averaged 2.2% over the past five years, which takes into account the 0% growth of 2009 due to the global financial crisis. Canada's population is expected to age significantly over the next decades. Canadians over 60 are projected to increase from 16.7% of the population in 2000 to 27.9% in 2025, and 30.5% in 2050. Consequently, in the future, many more Canadians will be spending time working on their stamp collections on cold winter days.

Those interested in becoming part of an international community of stamp collectors, dealers, and investors are welcome to join the "Stampselectors" group at Facebook. The group hosts lively discussions concerning stamp investment and practical aspects of collecting, as is also an excellent venue for those who wish to buy, sell, or trade stamps.





Thursday, December 13, 2012

Stamp Investment Tip: Zanzibar 1904 Monogram (Scott #79-93)

  In 1904, Zanzibar, then a British protectorate, issued a set of fifteen stamps picturing the monogram of Sultan Ali bin Hamoud (Scott #79-93). While printing quantity information is unavailable for this set, I estimate that fewer than 5,000 were issued. Scott '13 prices the unused set at $318.75.

In 1964, Tanganyika joined Zanzibar to form the United Republic of Tanganyika and Zanzibar, which changed its name to the United Republic of Tanzania in 1965. While it is likely that in the near-term, British Commonwealth collectors will generate most of the demand for stamps of Zanzibar, should a significant stamp collecting community develop within Tanzania, the undervalued stamps of the former protectorate will skyrocket.

Tanzania has a population of about 43 million, and its economy is mostly based on agriculture, which accounts for more than half of the GDP, provides about 75% of exports, and employs approximately 75% of the workforce. Topography and climate, though, limit cultivated crops to only 4% of the land area. The nation has many natural resources including minerals, natural gas, and tourism, and the government has instituted policies to promote development of these sectors. Annual GDP growth has averaged about 6.5% over the last 5 years.

Information concerning printing quantities of stamps is often useful in determining which may turn out to be good investments. The StampSelector Scarce Stamp Quantities Issued List (SSSSQIL) currently includes over 9,700 listings of stamps and souvenir sheets with issuance quantities of 100,000 or less.










Sunday, December 9, 2012

Stamp Investment Tip: British Guiana 1889 Surcharge (Scott #112-28)





     British Guiana was a former colony of Great Britain in South America which attained its independence as the nation of Guyana in 1966. From a philatelic perspective, it is most famous for having issued the stamp that was once considered the world's most valuable, the unique 1856 1c Black on magenta (Scott #13).


In 1889, British Guiana surcharged eighteen stamps of its current revenue issue for postal use (Scott #112-28). All of the high values of the set from the $1 through the $5 are extremely scarce to rare, with fewer than a thousand of each issued.The quantity issued is unknown for the key stamp of the set, the $4 Green with Type II Surcharge (Scott #127A), but it was probably 100 or fewer. Scott '13  prices the unused set at $4,365.00.

I recommend purchase of the complete set in F-VF or better, LH condition, or any of the high values individually. As with many valuable overprinted stamps, these should be purchased conditional on obtaining expertization.

   This issue represents a conservative investment based on the projected growth in popularity of British Commonwealth stamps. Should a significant stamp-collecting population develop in Guyana, the set will be given an added boost.

   A nation of about 750,000, Guyana has a medium level of economic development, which is mid-way between the affluent countries of Europe and North America and the countries that are the poorest and most deprived.Its dominant industries are agriculture, mining, and fishing. Annual GDP growth has averaged about 4.5% over the past 5 years.

Those interested in learning more about investing in stamps are encouraged to read the Philatelic Investment Guide ($5), available on Kindle, and accessible from any computer.






Thursday, December 6, 2012

Stamp Investment Tip: Latvia 2002 Fish booklet (Scott #556a)

In 2002, Latvia issued a set of two stamps picturing fish (Scott #555-56), along with a booklet (Scott #556a). Only 5,000 of the booklet were issued, and Scott '13 prices it unused at $15.00 .

The booklet has multiple market appeal among collectors of Latvia, Baltic States, and Animal topicals, the most popular thematic category. Furthermore, demand is enhanced for all Baltic States material by the tendency of collectors to focus on the region in general.

A nation of 2.2 million people, Latvia has diverse industries which include the production of synthetic fibers, agricultural machinery, fertilizers, radios, electronics, pharmaceuticals, processed foods, textiles, and timber. The centrally planned system of the Soviet period was replaced with a structure based on free-market principles. Riga, the capital, emerged as a regional financial and commercial center, which initially benefited the country but left it exposed to the worldwide economic tsunami which hit the banking sector in 2008. Until the onset of the global financial crisis, Latvia had the fastest growing economy in Europe. Over the last 5 years, the GDP has contracted by an average of about 1.5% annually, reflecting a 4.6% contraction in 2008 and an 18% disembowelment in 2009. Over the last two years, the economy has begun to recover.

Those interested in becoming part of an international community of stamp collectors, dealers, and investors are welcome to join the "Stampselectors" group at Facebook. The group hosts lively discussions concerning stamp investment and practical aspects of collecting, as is also an excellent venue for those who wish to buy, sell, or trade stamps.

Sunday, December 2, 2012

Stamp Investment Tip: South Korea 1957 15h Christmas Souvenir Sheets (Scott #265a-67a)


  In 1957, South Korea issued a rather boring set of stamps celebrating Christmas, and picturing the Star of Bethlehem and a pine cone (Scott #265-67). In addition, it also issued three souvenir sheets duplicating the stamp designs (Scott #265a-67a). Only 2,000 of each souvenir sheet were issued, and Scott '13 prices the set of unused sheets at $1,800 ($3,000.- for NH)  .

  I recommend purchase of these souvenir sheets, as they should do well based on the growth in popularity of Religion/Christianity topicals, as well as interest in stamps of Korea.


South Korea, a nation of about 50 million people, is one of the fastest growing economies in the world. Currently, it is the world's 13th largest economy and eighth largest exporter. It's export-fueled economic growth has led to a miraculous explosion in its GDP, from almost nothing 50 years ago to about $1 trillion today. Annual GDP growth has averaged about 4% over the last 5 years, reflecting a slowdown in 2009 due to the global financial crisis. Furthermore, South Korea may be the most rapidly aging nation on earth, as its 65+ population is expected to more than quadruple from 9% in 2005 to 38% in 2050. Obviously, this could pose economic challenges for the country, but it will almost certainly add to its stamp collecting population.

Information concerning printing quantities of stamps is often useful in determining which may turn out to be good investments. The StampSelector Scarce Stamp Quantities Issued List (SSSSQIL) currently includes over 9,700 listings of stamps and souvenir sheets with issuance quantities of 100,000 or less.