Pages

Search This Blog

Thursday, December 30, 2010

Stamp Investment Tip: Straits Settlements 1907 Overprint (Scott #134A-44)


With this article, I am initiating coverage of stamps of the Straits Settlements, a former British colony which once comprised the settlements of Malacca, Singapore, and Penang.


In 1907, the Brits issued an overprinted set (Scott #134A-44) for the Straits Settlements by overprinting eleven stamps from their 1902-03 set issued for Labuan, an island possession off the Northwest coast of Borneo. Only 4,000 sets were issued, and Scott '11 values the set unused at $553.25 .


Better stamps of the Straits Settlements are attractive because they have multiple market appeal to collectors of British Commonwealth, Singapore, and Malaya/Malaysia- all of which represent growing markets. I expect that over the long-term, the Malaysian stamp market will contribute the most to strengthening demand for stamps of the Straits Settlements and the Malayan States. In an earlier blog article, I commented on a Price, Waterhouse report which projected which countries' economies would grow the fastest over the next 40 years. Malaysia came in tenth on that list.


With a population of over 28 million, Malaysia is an emerging market nation and the 29th largest economy in the world. It has abundant minerals and petroleum, vast forests, as well as a thriving agricultural sector. Nevertheless, over the last four decades, the Malaysian government has committed the nation to a transition from reliance on mining and agriculture to manufacturing, and is moving to conserve its remaining forests and reforest the overcut areas. The government has recently taken steps to make Malaysia more business-friendly, and the number of Malaysians living in poverty has also decreased. As of 2007, average wages were around $34 per day, up from about $9 per day in 1999. Annual GDP growth has averaged almost 6% over the last five years, although the country is taking a hit in 2010 as a result of the global financial crisis.


Those interested in joining a community of stamp investors are welcome to join the "StampSelectors" group on Facebook. The group provides a valuable forum for those who wish discuss this blog, as well as trade or communicate with stamp collectors, dealers, and investors from all over the world.



Tuesday, December 28, 2010

General Commentary: Is There a Doctor in Your Album? The Prognosis for Medical Topicals




According to a survey done by the American Topical Association, Medical/Nursing-related stamps represent the fourth most popular topical stamp collecting area in the United States. While comparable data for the world as a whole is unavailable, it is likely that Medicine ranks high among the world's most popular collecting topics. As many Medical Topical collectors are in the health profession, there are some powerful catalysts which may bolster interest in Medical Topical stamps. The number of doctors and nurses in the world is expected to increase dramatically as a growing middle class in the developing countries demands better medical care and more doctors and nurses per capita, and global aging accentuates the need.


According to various estimates, there are currently approximately 10-15 million medical doctors in the world - about one for every 450 - 700 inhabitants. However, they are not evenly spread around. For the most part, the number of inhabitants per doctor is lowest in the affluent industrialized countries of the West and Japan, and highest in the least developed countries of Africa, Latin America, and Asia. For North America, Europe, and Japan, the number of inhabitants per doctor generally ranges from about 200-500. For Latin America (with the exceptions of Argentina, Chile, and Cuba), the numbers range from about 500-900; for Asia (with the exceptions of Israel and South Korea on the low side and Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and Nepal on the high side)- about 700-2,200; for Africa- a chaotically wide range from 1,900 to 50,000 inhabitants per doctor, with many Sub-Saharan African countries having tens of thousands inhabitants per doctor.

According to the World Health Organization, there is a global dearth of healthcare workers. The WHO estimates a worldwide deficit of 43 million medical professionals, with the greatest shortage in sub-Saharan Africa, which needs nearly 1 million workers. And while poverty exacerbates the problems for some regions of the world, the root causes of the healthcare-worker shortage—which includes physicians, nurses and researchers—are shared by both rich and poor nations. People are living longer and the need for healthcare is expanding, and even the most affluent countries, which have the highest number of physicians and nurses per capita, are feeling the pinch. In 2006, the American Association of Medical Colleges recommended that medical schools increase their enrollment by 30% to cope with the U.S.' growing shortage of physicians.

From a humanitarian perspective, the global doctor shortage is a serious crisis which needs to be addressed. Nevertheless, it also represents an opportunity for those who are considering investing in better Medical Topical stamps. As the number of health care workers increases, Medical Topical collecting will also get a "shot in the arm."

(Note: StampSelector articles related to Medical Topical collecting may be viewed by clicking on the "Medicine" category in the Search list, and include: Stamp Investment Tip: U.S. Private Die Medicine Stamps, Stamp Investment Tip: Armenia 2003 Neurophysiology Issue (Scott #682), Stamp Investment Tip: New South Wales 1897 Diamond Jubilee Semi-postals (Scott #B1-2).








Sunday, December 26, 2010

Stamp Investment Tip: Canada 1876 8c Registration Stamp (Scott #F3,F3a)

From 1875 through 1878, Canada issued a set of three registration stamps (Scott #F1-3). The 8c high value, issued in 1876, is the scarcest of the three, with 90,000 issued. It was printed in either dark blue (which Scott calls "dull blue"- #F3) and bright blue (Sc. #F3a). Scott '11 values each at $500.- for unused ($ 1,000.-for NH), and $ 350.- for used.

In all probability, the vast majority of these stamps were used and discarded. At the time, few collectors of Canada were interested in purchasing an obscure and visually uninspiring registered mail stamp.

I favor all better stamps of Canada and B.N.A., because I am very optimistic about Canada's prospects for economic growth. It has an affluent, well-educated population, valuable natural resources, and vast amounts of undeveloped land. It may even benefit from global warming, as much of Canada's frozen tundra may be eventually be naturally defrosted through the manmade "miracle" of the greenhouse effect, and become North America's new agricultural breadbasket, while the former one gradually turns into a wasteland.


With a population of about 31 million, Canada is one of the world's wealthiest countries, and one of the world's top ten trading nations. GDP growth has averaged 2.2% over the past five years, which takes into account the 0% growth of 2009 due to the global financial crisis. Canada's population is expected to age significantly over the next decades, thereby bolstering its population of serious collectors. Canadians over 60 are projected to increase from 16.7% of the population in 2000 to 27.9% in 2025, and 30.5% in 2050. Consequently, in the future, many more Canadians will be spending time working on their stamp collections on cold winter days.





Thursday, December 23, 2010

Stamp Investment Tip: Bahrain 1948 Royal Wedding (Scott #62-63)


In 1948, the Kingdom of Bahrain, then a British-protected territory, issued a set of two stamps celebrating the Silver Wedding Anniversary of King George VI and Queen Elizabeth (later the Queen Mother- Scott #62-63). 21,984 sets were issued and Scott '11 prices it unused at $48.75 .

Issues of Bahrain, especially those of the British period, are sought after both in Bahrain and among British Commonwealth collectors, and British Royal Family issues have additional topical appeal.


Bahrain, a country of just under 800,000, has the fastest growing economy in the Arab world. With oil reserves estimated at 150-200 million barrels, Bahrain is not as oil-rich as some of the other Gulf States, but has met the challenge by successfully diversifying into banking and financial services, and is now considered a major financial center. Annual GDP growth has averaged 6.5% over the past 5 years. Bahrain is also developing its natural gas industry, as it has gas reserves equivalent to about another 580 million barrels of oil.


There are a number of scarce issues from the Gulf States which I view as bargains. Assuming that these countries can maintain their economic growth, diversify away from their current near-total dependence on oil revenues, and avoid internal political instability or military conflicts with some of their noisier neighbors, their better stamps should all do well.





Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Stamp Investment Tip: Guatemala Inverted Quetzal Errors (Scott #22a, 23a, 25a)


In 1881, Guatemala issued an attractive set of stamps picturing its national bird, the Quetzal (Scott #21-25). Each stamp was printed in two colors, and as occasionally happens during the printing of multi-colored stamps, a few sheets went through the printing press upside-down, producing invert errors of the 2, 5, and 20 centavos denominations (Scott #22a, 23a, 25a). Quantities issued are not known, but in all probability, the stamps are extremely scarce to rare, with quantities remaining ranging from about 20-50 for #23a to a few hundred for each of #s 22a and 25a. For unused examples, Scott '11 values #22a at $400.-, #23a at $3,000.-, and #25a at $500.-.


Aside from the fact that I favor all undervalued issues of Latin America, the Quetzal Inverts also appeal to both the most affluent of Bird Topical collectors, and to Error collectors. The scarcest of the three (#23a) is rarer than an Inverted Jenny, the most famous American invert, yet may be had for less than 1% of the cost of its snobby cousin up north.


With a population of about 14 million, Guatemala is a poor but developing country. Since the end of the Civil War in 1996, the country has witnessed a successful transition from authoritarian dictatorship to democracy, although major inequities in income still need to be addressed. In recent years the export sector has grown dynamically. Some of Guatemala's main products include fruits, vegetables, flowers, handicrafts, and textiles. The 1996 peace accords that ended the decades-long Civil War removed a major obstacle to foreign investment, and tourism has become an increasing source of revenue. Annual GDP growth has averaged just under 5% over the last 5 years.


I have begun a new blog, "The Stamp Specialist", featuring my buy lists for stamps which I wish to purchase, including some sets from Guatemala. I have not buy-listed the Inverted Quetzals, but would be happy to purchase any offered at reasonable prices and with certificates. Periodically viewing dealers' buy lists is an excellent way to remained informed about the state of the stamp market.

Those interested in joining a community of stamp investors are welcome to join the "StampSelectors" group on Facebook. The group provides a valuable forum for those who wish discuss this blog, as well as trade or communicate with stamp collectors, dealers, and investors from all over the world.







Sunday, December 19, 2010

Stamp Investment Tip: Turkey 1953 Conquest of Constantinople (Scott #1090-1101, 1101a)


In 1953, Turkey issued a set and souvenir sheet commemorating the 500th Anniversary of the Conquest of Constaninople by Sultan Mohammed II (Scott # 1090-1101, 1101a). 100,000 sets and 25,000 souvenir sheets were issued, and Scott '11 prices them unused at $48.05 and $175.- , respectively.



I recommend purchase of both the set and the souvenir sheet. Though far fewer of the souvenir sheets were issued, it is likely that a much higher proportion of the sets were used as postage and discarded. The issue commemorates a pivotal event in Turkish history, and will be eagerly sought after as Turkey's stamp collecting population continues to grow.

With a population of about 72 1/2 million, Turkey is perhaps the most culturally European of the Islamic nations, and a likely model for their modernization, economic development, and democratization. The country experienced rapid economic growth between 2002 and 2007, with GDP averaging 7.4%, but this slowed in 2008 to 5% and stalled in 2009 to 1%, due to the global financial crisis, from which the country is recovering. While traditional agriculture is still a pillar of the Turkish economy, it is becoming more dependent on industry. Key sectors include tourism, banking, construction, home appliances, electronics, textiles, oil refining, petrochemical products, food, mining, iron and steel, the machine industry, automotive, and shipbuilding. It is likely that in the future, Turkey will benefit from serving as an economic and cultural nexus connecting Europe, the Near East, and the Turkic (formerly Soviet) nations of Central Asia.



Thursday, December 16, 2010

Stamp Investment Tip: Tibet

Tibet is termed an "autonymous region" of the People's Republic of China by that country's government. It is frequently in the news, as well it should be, since its brutal occupation by the Chinese represents the biggest land grab in recent history, as well as one of the most reprensible modern examples of cultural and political repression.

As an independent nation, Tibet produced 18 stamps (plus varieties) from 1912 until the Chinese invasion in 1950. The stamps were printed on rough native paper, and inclusions are normal, and do not detract from the value unless they seriously obstruct the design or have seriously damaged the paper. While printing quantity information is not available for these issues, I would conservatively estimate that no more than a few thousand of the scarcest stamps were produced, and that quantities issued on the others range upward into the low tens of thousands. Unfortunately, excellent counterfeits exist, so I recommend focusing on the most expensive of the Tibetan stamps (those that catalogue $250 or more), and requiring expertization as a condition of purchase.


While there are only about 3 million Tibetans (probably not enough to sustain a strong demand for their stamps), the stamps of Tibet also appeal to specialists in Europe and the U.S. . In addition, there is also a potential market among the millions of people throughout the world who either have an interest in Tibetan Buddhism or who sympathize with the cause of Tibetan Independence. The stamps remain undervalued because of the ubiquity of counterfeits and the consequent cost and inconvenience of obtaining certificates. As in similar cases with certain other countries' stamps, the cream will eventually rise to the top.






Tuesday, December 14, 2010

Stamp Investment Tip: Botswana 1970 Charles Dickens Centenary (Scott #62-65, 65a)


In 1970, Botswana issued a set and souvenir sheet commemorating the Centenary of the Death of Charles Dickens (Scott #62-65, 65a). 31,947 sets and 12,908 souvenir sheets were issued, and Scott '11 prices them unused at $2.25 and $5.25 , respectively.

Both the set and souvenir sheet are interesting speculations based on their obvious topical appeal to aficionados of the world famous author, as well as more general interest among collectors of British Commonwealth. While it is true that Botswana is a model for economic development in Africa, it is possible that it is not populous enough to support a significant stamp collecting community.

A nation of about 2 million, Botswana is one of the world’s great development success stories. A small, landlocked country of 1.9 million people, Botswana was one of the poorest countries in Africa with a GDP per capita of about $70 at independence from Britain in 1966. In the four decades following independence, Botswana has transformed itself, moving into the ranks of middle-income status to become one of the fastest growing economies in the world. Agriculture, mining and banking are the major sectors, and annual GDP growth has averaged about 1.5% over the last 5 years, but this reflects a recent contraction of about 12%, due to the global financial crisis.




Sunday, December 12, 2010

Stamp Investment Tip: Uzbekistan 1999 Birds of Prey Souvenir Sheet (Scott #196)

In 1999, Uzbekistan issued a souvenir sheet picturing Birds of Prey (Scott #1961 ). Only 10,000 were issued, and Scott '11 values it at $3.25 for unused. While the sheet was almost certainly produced to generate revenue from sales to collectors, it is nevertheless an attractive, cheap, and scarce Bird topical that is worth squawking about. As Uzbekistan's economic prospects seem promising, the souvenir sheet is "twice lovable."

A nation of about 28 million, Uzbekistan relies mainly on the production or extraction of commodities, including cotton, gold, uranium, potassium, and natural gas. The government is slowly relaxing state control of the economy, although it remains hostile to allowing the development of a significant private sector. Average annual GDP growth has been outstanding, averaging 8% over the last 5 years. However, average income has remained low, at around $610 per year (2006), largely due to the fact that much of the country's prosperity has benefited a tiny ruling elite of corrupt bureaucrats. Reforms are obviously necessary, although given the country's abysmal human rights record, the road to change will probably be a bumpy one.


Many of the newly independent and newly resurrected nations of Europe and Central Asia have issued popular topical sets and souvenir sheets in modest quantities, and most are currently very inexpensive. I view such issues as low-risk speculations, as only time will tell whether either the development of stamp markets within these countries or topical appeal will push them significantly higher. In a sense, they're comparable to penny stocks, but not as risky.


Thursday, December 9, 2010

Stamp Investment Tip: Venezuela 1932-38 Simon Bolivar (Scott #293-304)

From 1932 to '38, Venezuela issued a definitive set picturing Simon Bolivar, and printed on bluish Winchester security paper to prevent counterfeiting (Scott 293-304). 42,000 were issued, and Scott '11 values the set at $117.85 for unused. Issued over a period of seven years when few people were collecting Venezuela, most sets were probably used as postage and discarded. Perhaps a few thousand remain. The set is yet another example of a grossly undervalued issue of Latin America, which should do very well as the region continues its economic development.


With a population of about 26 million, Venezuela is resource-rich, and consistently ranks among the top ten oil producers in the world. Annual GDP growth has averaged almost 10% over the last 5 years, although it has been decelerating recently due to lower oil prices. Under Chavez-style quasi-socialism, the percentage of Venezuelans living below the poverty line has decreased from 48% in 2002 to 30% in 2006. The country has begun diversifying its economy away from its current near-total dependence on petroleum exports, and has spawned a rapidly growing manufacturing sector.

I have begun a new blog, "The Stamp Specialist", featuring my buy lists for stamps which I wish to purchase, including the set recommended in this article.Periodically viewing dealers' buy lists
is an excellent way to remained informed about the state of the stamp market.


Those interested in joining a community of stamp investors are welcome to join the "StampSelectors" group on Facebook. The group provides a valuable forum for those who wish discuss this blog, as well as trade or communicate with stamp collectors, dealers, and investors from all over the world.

Tuesday, December 7, 2010

Phila-Trivia: When Travesty Turns to Treasure


In 2006, New Zealand attempted to celebrate Maori culture with a set of stamps featuring Maori dancers and honoring the "Kapa haka" ritual performance, which combines choral singing, dancing, and martial arts.


Ironically, the proposed stamp designs met with intense opposition from prominent members of the Maori community, which viewed them as being in bad taste, and said that the cartoon-type characters were culturally insensitive and ridiculed Maori. The designs were called "cheap, ugly, stupid comic strips" which would make the Maori People the "laughing stock of the world."


New Zealand Post initially defended the cartoon designs, arguing that they were "fresh and contemporary", but it relented in the face of mounting opposition, and destroyed approximately a million of the stamps. It also promised that it would create an issue that would honor Kapa haka at some point in the future, and that the Maori community would be widely consulted regarding any future stamps depicting them.


However, not all of the offending stamps were destroyed, as New Zealand Post's philatelic branch errantly mailed several hundred of them to stamp collectors who had ordered them in advance. A few first day covers were produced and sold, and a few were used as postage, so it is possible that some might one day be found in packets or dealers' penny boxes.

The five stamps are noted but not priced in Scott, and currently sell for between $10,000 and $15,000 per set. Once hated, they are now prized.


Sunday, December 5, 2010

Stamp Investment Tip: St. Pierre and Miquelon 1962 Submarine "Surcouf" (Scott #C25)


The Territorial Collectivity of St. Pierre and Miquelon, the only remnant of the former French colonial empire in North America, is comprised of two small groups of islands off the coast of Newfoundland. From a philatelic investment perspective, it's of interest because its stamps are popular in Canada and among collectors of French Colonies - both growing markets.


In 1962, St. Pierre and Miquelon issued a 500fr Airmail picturing the World War II Submarine "Surcouf", and celebrating the previous year's 20th Anniversary of St. Pierre's joining the Free French (Scott #C25). While the printing quantity of this high-value stamp is not known, I estimate that no more than 10,000-20,000 were issued, and as the stamp was considered pricey at the time, many were probably used on heavy parcels and discarded. Scott '11 prices the stamp unused at $ 130.00.


As an attractive combined Ship, Map, and World War II topical, and the key airmail of St. Pierre and Miquelon, the stamp should continue to do well in the years to come.





Thursday, December 2, 2010

Stamp Investment Tip: Portuguese India - 1871-77 Numeral Issues (Scott #1-55)

The Indian stamp market continues to warm, although as yet it has not become as white-hot as China's, and there are still some areas which remain neglected.

One such is Portuguese India. Both the Portuguese and the French held some territory in India, while the British dominated the rest of it. Both of the lesser colonial powers in India issued stamps which are, for the most part, neglected by Indian collectors, and which have potential multiple market appeal in India, their home countries, and among collectors of European colonies. Interestingly, the Portuguese held out the longest of the three, and issued stamps for their colony until India seized it in 1961, ending the occupation. It isn't the only time that obsolescent imperial visions of grandeur have benefited philatelists.

The early issues of Portuguese India (1871-1877; Scott # 1-55) were rather plain looking stamps bearing numerals of value. The mode of production used was primitive: the stamps were handstamped from a single die, and so crudely perforated that they often had to be cut from their sheets with scissors. Quantities issued are unknown for these stamps, but in all likelihood, they range from under a thousand to the low ten thousands for those that catalogue $25 or more. Not many stamp collectors were interested in stamps of Portuguese India in the 19th century, and it's likely that most of these stamps were used and discarded, which is why these early issues are not seen very often.

I recommend purchase of these stamps, especially if found in reasonably decent condition. Those that catalogue $200 or more should be purchased conditional on obtaining expertization.

Those interested in joining a community of stamp collectors, dealers, and investors are welcome to join the Facebook "Stampselectors" group, which has grown to over 1,500 members (as of December, 2010). Members are free to post ads related to stamp collecting, and topics discussed include stamp investment and the practical aspects of buying and selling stamps.





Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Stamp Investment Tip: Cape of Good Hope Vryburg Issues (Scott #N1-8)


During the Boer War, provisional stamps (Scott #N1-8) were issued in Vryburg, a town in the Cape of Good Hope, which was occupied in 1899 by the Boers, and in 1900 by the British. The Boer issues (Scott #N1-4) range in value from $ 240.- to $2,500.- for unused and $95.- to 600.- for used (by Scott '11), are extremely scarce to rare, and as they are overprints, they require expertization. The British Occupation issues (Scott #N5-8) are rare to extremely rare, and unaffordable to most collectors.

I view all of the better stamps of the Boer War period from the Cape of Good Hope and the related issuing entities of South Africa as good investments, as they have dual market appeal to collectors of British Commonwealth and South Africa.

As a a middle-income country of about 49 million, South Africa has an abundant supply of resources, well-developed financial, legal, communications, energy, and transport sectors, a stock exchange that ranks among the top twenty in the world, and a modern infrastructure supporting an efficient distribution of goods to major urban centres throughout the entire region. South Africa is ranked 25th in the world in terms of GDP. Annual GDP growth has averaged about 4% over the past 5 years.

However, the country has a two-tiered economy- one rivaling other developed countries and the other with only the most basic infrastructure, similar to a Third World nation. Unemployment is extremely high and income inequality is approximately equal to Brazil. Also, there is an 18% HIV infection rate among South African adults, among the highest in the world.


Given the somewhat mixed picture that South Africa presents, I feel that better stamps from the country and its related issuing entities should be viewed mainly as conservative plays on the growth of British Commonwealth collecting. I am hopeful that over time, most of South Africa's worst problems will be ameliorated or solved, but whether that will require years or decades is an open question.




Sunday, November 28, 2010

Stamp Investment Tip: Hungary 1931 Zeppelin Overprints (Scott #C24-25)


In 1931 , Hungary issued a pair of stamps for use on Zeppelin mail (Scott #C24-25). 58,598 sets were issued, and Scott '11 prices the set unused at $80.- ($140.- for NH) . The set was also issued imperforate (Scott C24-25Note), and while quantity issued information is not available for the imperforate sets, I estimate that 10,000 or fewer were produced. Scott '11 prices the imperforate set at $250.- .

Zeppelin stamps and covers are very popular among collectors in Europe and the U.S. and should to do well as a subgroup of Aviation philately. The European sovereign debt contagion has put alot of stamps of Europe on sale, and the way for philatelic investors to play the crisis is to buy up the better topical sets while they're still cheap.


After a difficult transition from a centrally-controlled economy to capitalism, Hungary has experienced moderate economic growth until it was hit hard by the 2008-09 financial crisis. As the newest member of the European Union, this nation of 10 million receives nearly a third of all direct investment flowing into Eastern Europe. Agriculture, metallurgy and mining, and tourism are major components of the economy, According to a governmental forecast, annual GDP growth is projected to return to about 4% in 2011.




Thursday, November 25, 2010

Stamp Investment Tip: Laos 1962 Mail Service S/S Booklet (Scott #80Note)


In 1962, Laos issued a set of stamps commemorating ancient and modern forms of mail service (Scott #77-80). The basic set is common and inexpensive; however, one thousand booklets of four souvenir sheets containing the set in perf. and imperf. formats were also issued (Scott #80Note), and Scott '11 prices these at $200.- . I recommend purchase of this booklet, especially if you can find it in nice condition and with fresh gum. Many of those remaining contain sheets which have gum defects, including toning, due to poor storage in a tropical climate.



The booklet appeals to collectors of Laos, Indochina, and to collectors of French Colonies/Area. While I do not believe that demand for stamps of Laos will increase significantly among Laotians in the near future, I do foresee a growth in the number of collectors of French Colonies/former colonies and Indochina in general.


A nation of 6.3 million, Laos is a poor, though rapidly developing nation which is heavily dependent upon trade with its neighbors, China, Thailand, and Vietnam. Subsistence agriculture still accounts for half of the GDP and provides 80 percent of employment. However, the mining and tourism sectors are growing rapidly, and the government is taking steps to significantly upgrade the country's infrastructure, with the help of foreign aid. Annual GDP growth has averaged over 7% over the last 5 years.


Those interested in learning about stamps of Indochina (as a French colony), Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia should consider joining the Society of Indochina Philatelists.



Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Stamp Investment Tip: Kuwait 1948 Silver Wedding (Scott #82-83)


Kuwait was a British Protectorate until it attained independence in 1961. In 1948, the British issued a surcharged set of two stamps for Kuwait celebrating the Silver Wedding Anniversary of King George VI and Queen Elizabeth (later the Queen Mother- Scott #82-83). 31,703 sets were issued, and Scott '11 prices the unused set at $45.50 . Issues of Kuwait, especially those of the British period, are sought after both in Kuwait and among British Commonwealth collectors, and British Royal Family issues have additional topical appeal.

A country of just under 3 million people, Kuwait is the 5th richest country in the world, with proven oil reserves of 104 billion barrels, and annual GDP growth of just under 6%. It is also developing its other major industries, which include shipping, construction, cement, water desalination, construction materials and financial services.

There are a number of scarce and undervalued issues from the Gulf States which I view as bargains. Assuming that these countries can maintain their economic growth, diversify away from their current near-total dependence on oil revenues, and avoid internal political instability or military conflicts with their neighbors, their better stamps should all do well.

Those interested in joining a community of stamp collectors, dealers, and investors are welcome to join the Facebook "Stampselectors" group, which has grown to over 1,500 members (as of 11/24/10). Members are free to post ads related to stamp collecting, and topics discussed include stamp investment and practical aspects of collecting and trading stamps.





Saturday, November 20, 2010

Stamp Investment Tip: Bermuda 1906-10 Dry Dock (Scott #31-39)


From 1906 to '10, Bermuda issued a set of nine stamps picturing a ship in dry dock (Scott #31-39). 70,560 were issued, and Scott '11 values it at $150.60 for unused. The set's subject enhances its appeal as a Ship topical, and in all probability, there are only a few thousand sets left. It was issued over four years, and as there weren't many collectors of Bermuda a century ago, most were probably used as postage and discarded.


I think that in future, growth in demand among British Commonwealth collectors will be the basis for value increases for better stamps of Bermuda, as the territory's population, though affluent, is probably not large enough to sustain a significant base of collectors.


With about 68,000 people, Bermuda has an thriving economy, with finance as its largest sector, followed by tourism. As a result of its its low direct taxation on personal or corporate income, Bermuda is an offshore financial center. As the offshore domicile of many foreign companies, Bermuda has a highly developed international business economy; it is an "exporter" of financial services, primarily insurance, reinsurance, and investment funds. Finance and international business now constitute the largest sector of Bermuda's economy. As of 2007, Bermuda's GDP was $5.85 billion in 2007, or $91,477 per capita, giving it the highest GDP per capita in the world. Annual GDP growth has averaged 5% over the last 5 years.





Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Stamp Investment Tip: Azerbaijan 1998 Chess Championship Issue (678A-79, 680-81)


It is common knowledge among marketers of new issue stamps that combining two or more popular topics in a single issue can significantly enhance its demand among topical collectors. Were it feasible to issue a stamp or souvenir sheet featuring Elvis playing Baseball with Gandhi and Lady Diana on the Moon, with astronauts in the outfield, in the midst of birds, butterflies, flowers, and fish, then topical stamp collections might eventually come to resemble accumulations of outsider art created by schizophrenics in insane asylums.

In 1998, Azerbaijan presented the philatelic world with a taste of such madness by combining two utterly unrelated popular topics (Chess and Disney) on sets of stamps (Scott #678A-79) and souvenir sheets (Scott #680-81) honoring the World Rapid Chess Championship. The first set is actually a set of nine stamps, because #679 is a sheet of 8 different stamps picturing Disney characters. Though the issue may seem inane, investing in it does not necessarily mean that one is as stupid as "Goofy" or "Dumbo." Only 13,000 of each set was issued, and Scott '11 prices the unused sets at $51.90 and $50.00, respectively.


Both sets make interesting and low-risk speculations based on their appeal as ridiculous combined Chess/Disney topicals, and as bets on the economic growth of Azerbaijan and the development of a stamp market there. This recommendation is consistent with my belief that one of the best ways to play the new and newly resurrected countries of Europe and Asia is to focus on popular topicals with low printings.


Azerbaijan is an oil-rich nation of about 9 million people, which also has significant reserves of natural gas and various minerals. Agriculture and tourism are also important to the Azerbaijani economy. The country shares all the problems of the former Soviet republics in making the transition from a command to a market economy, but its energy resources brighten its long-term prospects. It has begun making progress on economic reform, and old economic ties and structures are slowly being replaced. Annual GDP growth has averaged a stellar 21% over the last 5 years, largely based on the frenetic development of the country's oil wealth - an estimated 7 billion barrels of reserves.


Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Stamp Investment Tip: Brazil 1937 Scenes (Scott #446-49)



In 1937, Brazil issued a set of four stamps picturing the Monroe Palace and Botanical Garden in Rio de Janeiro (Scott #446-49). 50,000 were issued, and Scott '11 prices it unused at $ 85.00. For those who wish to invest in Brazil and who would like an attractive alternative to stocks, purchasing some of the country's undervalued issues, including this one, would be a good way to go.



With 191 million people, Brazil is the largest economy in Latin America, and the world's eighth largest. Political and economic reforms have given the country a brighter future than it had in the bad old days of oligarchical dictatorship. The Brazilian economy is diverse, the country is aggressively investing in its future by generously funding technological research and education, and exports are booming. Annual GDP growth has averaged a little over 3% over the last 5 years, reflecting a slowdown in 2010 due to the global financial crisis.

There are a number of undervalued Brazilian issues with printing quantities of 10,000 to 100,000, some of which have topical appeal, and recommending them for accumulation seems a no-brainer. Brazil looks destined to become an economic superpower, and even if it mirrors the philatelically anemic U.S. and only one out of a thousand Brazilians become serious stamp collectors and one out of a fifty become "unserious" ones, they'll be competing for their nation's better stamps, only to find that the cupboard is bare.










Stamp Investment Tip: Bolivia 1930 Graf Zeppelin Issues

In 1930, Bolivia issued three sets for use on the South America Flight of the Graf Zeppelin. All are worthy of consideration as investments, but as these are overprints, the most expensive of them should be purchased conditional on expertization.

I've listed the stamps, along with printing quantities and Scott '11 Catalogue Values for unused, below:


- 1930 Overprint (Scott #C11-18)- C11-12 and C15-16: 8,000 of each, C14: 10,000 (Scott '11 CV = $ 20.- for each) ; C13 (CV = $2,500.- ) and C17 (CV= $1,000.-): 50 of each; C18 (CV = $ 350.-): 1,800 issued;

-1930 Metallic Surcharges (Scott #C19-23; 300; $ 1,120.-)

-1930 "Z" Surcharge (Scott #C24-26; 3,000; $210.- )


Some of the Bolivian Zepps present an expertization cost problem, in that some of the stamps are not quite expensive enough to justify the expense of expertizing them. Zepp Flight covers exist with complete sets of C19-23 or C24-26, and getting such covers expertized is far more economical than submitting individual values from these sets.


These stamps strongly appeal to both collectors of Latin America and of Zeppelin stamps. Zeppelin stamps and covers are extremely popular among "Zepp" collectors and Aviation topicalists, especially in Europe. Those issued by destination-countries which are likely prospects for rapid economic development should do very well over the next decades.

A nation of about 11 million people, Bolivia is the poorest country in South America, despite being rich in natural resources. Along with substantial reserves of silver and tin, Bolivia has the second largest natural gas reserves in South America and 50%-70% of the world's lithium, for which demand is expected to rise significantly over the next decades, because of its use in making batteries for electric vehicles. Since 1985, the government of Bolivia has implemented a far-reaching program of macroeconomic stabilization and structural reform aimed at maintaining price stability, creating conditions for sustained growth, encouraging foreign investment, and alleviating scarcity. Annual GDP growth has averaged 4.6% over the last 5 years.

I have begun a new blog, "The Stamp Specialist", featuring my buy lists for stamps which I wish to purchase, including some of the stamps recommended in this article.Periodically viewing dealers' buy lists is an excellent way to remained informed about the state of the stamp market.





Sunday, November 14, 2010

Practical Advice: Investment Criteria for Stamps



What determines whether a particular issue is a good investment, and what criteria should one use when considering which stamps to target?

A stamp is similar to other commodities in that its value is determined by supply and demand. Unfortunately, there is very little hard data regarding these two determinants which may be used to "screen" for worthwhile stamps in the same way that one may screen for a list of stocks.

The simplest of these determinants, supply, is a function of the number of stamps issued minus those destroyed or damaged due to attrition. Often, quantity issued information is unavailable for a particular stamp, so it may be necessary to estimate the number issued based upon known quantities issued of similar stamps of comparable value. The number of stamps of a particular issue which have been destroyed or damaged is almost never known, but it may sometimes be possible to make an "educated guess" regarding an approximate range of surviving examples in collectable condition. For most stamps, the vast majority of those issued are used as postage and discarded, so it is sometimes possible to arrive at a notion of a range of usage rates based partly upon the difference in value between the stamp in unused vs. used condition.

Another form of supply attrition results from the damage to stamps in collections or accumulations due to poor storage or other forms of neglect. This, of course, is impossible to calculate, but as a general rule, it applies mostly to inexpensive stamps rather than the more valuable ones which the owners are more likely to take greater pains to preserve. This higher attrition rate is main reason that inexpensive stamps tend to increase in value at a faster rate than rarities do, over time.


Gauging a stamp's scarcity can sometimes rely partly on a hunch based upon one's knowledge and experience of the stamp market. A collector or dealer who has traded in stamps for decades may develop a "feeling" for which stamps are common and which are scarce, when no solid quantitative information is available.


Predicting future demand for an issue is somewhat less straightforward, and is as much an art as a science. There are two main constituents of demand: interest in the stamps of a particular region, or country (and/or its colonies), and interest in a particular topic, theme, or subcategory of philately. Projecting trends in future demand is mostly based on demographic considerations, and these focus mainly on the prospective increase in the number of "serious collectors" seeking a stamps of a particular country or topic. This cohort usually constitutes between 5% and 10% of the general population of stamp collectors. Of course, the majority of stamp collectors (who are less serious about their hobby) also affect demand, and some may eventually become more "serious." However, as they are less committed, they tend to spend less, and their effect on the market is less predictable. Defining who is a "serious collector" is subjective and varies from country to country; my own "rule of thumb" is that such an individual spends at least 1% of his income per year on stamps.


Collecting stamps on a serious level is a leisure activity which requires that the individual who engages in it have sufficient time and money to do so. Therefore, the number of serious collectors within a country usually correlates with the size of its middle class. The growth of a country's middle class is dependent upon two variables: economic growth, and the extent to which that growth benefits the population as a whole. A situation in which a country's prosperity is not sufficiently shared but mainly benefits only a tiny ruling elite does not augur well for the country's stamp market.


Significant demand for a particular country's stamps may extend beyond the collectors within the country, however. If there exist large numbers of immigrants from the country (or their descendants) living in other countries, such groups may have a cultural or sentimental bond with their former country. Also, as some countries are former colonies of European nations, there may be a demand for a country's stamps among those who collect the former mother country and its colonies. Thirdly, certain groupings of countries (such as the Baltic States, Latin America, etc.) are often collected as regions. Thus, in many cases applying criteria of economic growth may be complicated by the dual or multiple "overseas" appeal of a particular country's stamps.


Similar growth trends apply to topical or "thematic" collecting, although since topical collecting is generally a worldwide phenomena, the trends are usually more difficult to quantify. For instance, one may recognize that Soccer is popular in much of the developing world, and should grow in popularity as a collecting topic, but attempting to analyze the trend on a country-by-country basis would not be practical. Certain topics, such as National Heroes, apply only to individual countries, and the growth in their popularity may be projected using the same data that one would use to gauge the trends for the country's stamps generally.


A number of miscellaneous factors can also significantly affect demand. If a stamp has been extensively forged or faked, but is not valuable enough to be worth expertising, then demand for the stamp may be adversely affected, even if authentic examples are scarce. The reason for this is that most collectors will tend to value even the authentic stamps as if they were fakes, because they will not be able to distinguish between what is authentic and what is not. This is the case with many overprinted issues. If major catalogs consider an issue "illegitimate" (i.e. issued mainly as a means of profiting from sales to collectors, rather than for postal use), and do not list it, then that also may dampen demand. Every once in a while, a postal service will issue a stamp with innately self-destructive qualities, such as high-acid paper or gum, or gum containing chemicals which otherwise degrade the stamp over time. Such stamps present special preservation problems which may adversely affect demand, although since these problems often result in accelerated diminution of supply, collectors who take the necessary steps to preserve such stamps may be amply rewarded.

In summary, the following criteria should be considered when evaluating an issue as an investment:

1) Quantity issued, or if not known, an estimate thereof
2) Estimated quantity remaining
3) The population and economic prospects of the country of issuance (i.e. economic growth and growth of a middle class)
4) "Overseas" appeal of the country's stamps
5) Topical appeal, and trends affecting growth of the topic
6) Miscellaneous factors

Obviously, in those instances in which the investor must rely mainly on estimates and educated guesses, it is prudent not to "rush in where angels fear to tread." Otherwise, one might wind up trying to walk on a nebulous cloud combining unjustified optimism and ignorance.









Thursday, November 11, 2010

Stamp Investment Tip: Nova Scotia 1851-57 Issue (Scott #1-7)


From 1851-57, Nova Scotia, which was then a British colony, issued its first postage stamps (Scott #1-7). All featured the crown and heraldic flowers design which was used for several other issues of British North America, except for the 1p Red Brown (Scott #1), which portrayed a young Queen Victoria. All of these stamps are scarce, and while quantities issued are known on #2, the most common of the seven stamps, and #6 (91,000 and 50,000, respectively), each of the rest probably had comparable printings. The vast majority of these stamps were almost certainly used and discarded. I've listed the Scott '11 Catalogue values for unused and used below:

-1853 1p Red Brown (Scott #1; $3,250.- unused, $650.- used)

-1851-57 3p Bright Blue (Scott #2; $1,250.- unused, $240.- used)

-1851-57 3p Dark Blue (Scott #3; $1,600.- unused, $300.- used)

-1851-57 6p Yellow Green (Scott #4; $4,750.- unused, $675.- used)

-1857 6p Dark Green (Scott #5; $9,250.- unused, $1,900.- used)

-1857 1sh Reddish Purple (Scott #6; $25,000.- unused, $5,250.- used)

-1857 1sh Dull Violet (Scott #7; $25,000.- unused, $6,500.- used)

Based on the value differences between unused and used, I consider F-VF+ used examples of these stamps to be bargains.


I continue to favor all better stamps of British North America as worthy of consideration. The area is very popular among collectors of both Canada and British Commonwealth, and the better items represent solid investments, as interest in stamp collecting in Canada is much stronger than it is in the U.S. .


With a population of about 31 million, Canada is one of the world's wealthiest countries, and is one of the world's top ten trading nations. GDP growth has averaged 2.2% over the past five years, which takes into account the 0% growth of 2009 due to the global financial crisis. Canada's population is expected to age significantly over the next decades. Canadians over 60 are projected to increase from 16.7% of the population in 2000 to 27.9% in 2025, and 30.5% in 2050. Consequently, in the future, many more Canadians will be spending time working on their stamp collections on cold winter days.

Those interested in learning about investing in stamps should read the Guide to Philatelic Investing ($5), available on Kindle and easily accessible from any computer.






Tuesday, November 9, 2010

Stamp Investment Tip: Indian Convention States - Nabha 1885-97 Officials (Scott #O6-15)


During the Raj period, the Convention States of Chamba, Faridkot, Jhind, Nabha, and Patiala had postal agreements with Great Britain, allowing their stamps franking power throughout all of British India. Stamps of the Convention States were all overprinted stamps of British India, in contrast to the stamps of the Indian Feudatory States, which were issued independently, and which were only valid within the issuing states.The stamps of the Convention States are rich in varieties and errors. Typical errors include inverted overprints, spelling mistakes in English or Devanagri, errors of omission and capital letters than the normal types.


I initiated coverage of the Indian Convention States a while back by tipping Chamba Sc. #1-15. As I believe that this is one of the most undervalued areas in Indian Philately, I now continue my focus on it by recommending the 1885-97 Official set (Scott #O6-15). The two 1r values of the set (Scott # O13 and O14) had printings of only 2,000 each. Scott '10 values the set unused at $183.25.

Until the last decade or so, most of the demand for stamps of India's Convention and Feudatory States has come from British Commonwealth collectors and specialists outside of India. With India's economic rise, its stamp market has been heating up considerably. I am confident that in the coming years, the center of demand for these collecting areas will shift to India, as the number of stamp collectors there will number in the millions, if not tens of millions.


Those interested in joining a community of stamp investors, dealers, and collectors are welcome to join the "Stampselectors" group at Facebook. The group provides a useful venue for those who wish to buy, sell, and trade stamps, and discuss philatelic investing and practical aspects of stamp collecting.